Kenyan authorities are blaming external players with interests in oil, gas and fishing for the ongoing diplomatic spat with Somalia over the common border in the Indian Ocean.
The diplomatic flare-up is also being seen as arising from emerging regional security concerns and internal Somali politics as the country prepares for next year’s elections.
The presidential election planned for 2020 and regional elections, especially in Jubbaland, have generatedmuch heat in Somalia, where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo’s government is trying to entrench itself and increase its chances of winning the polls.
It is not lost on the Farmajo regime that Jubbaland leader, Sheikh Ahmed Madobe is allied to Kenya, a position Mogadishu is uncomfortable with and has been determined to change.
Kenya needs Madobe to ward off Al Shabaab, from whom the Kenya Defence Forces took Kismayu, the capital of Jubbaland, in 2012.
Jubbaland State stretches along the entire northeastern Kenyan border, effectively creating a buffer zone with the rest of Somalia. Madobe also needs Kenya because the majority of his Ogaden clan whose support he needs to stay in power, live in Kenya.