Somalia looks more likely to strike oil than gas in its long pursuit of offshore riches, making it easier for the African state to exploit any windfall but also potentially upsetting the fragile recovery led by its Western-backed government.
The waters off Somalia, best known for years of piracy, may harbour hydrocarbons at a depth at which crude is usually found, seismic services company Spectrum said last week. This is unlike the seas further south along the African coastline where gas is abundant.
That would be good news for Somalia, which would probably find pumping oil on to tankers easier than securing the multibillion-dollar investment needed to liquefy gas for export.
Oil revenues could transform Somalia’s economy, where many people rely on subsistence livestock farming. But it could prove a challenge for a government trying to rebuild a nation battered by clan rivalries and Islamist insurgents after it descended into war in 1991.
“Disagreements between the member states and the federal government could fuel violence and corruption in a country that is still very much trying to build and extend governance,” said Ahmed Soliman, of British think-tank Chatham House.