An intensifying U.S. airstrike campaign against Somalia is unlikely by itself to defeat a resilient band of al-Qaida-aligned militants, a fact that could tempt the U.S. to wade deeper into a country faced with the departure of an African force that has offered protection for a decade.
The uptick in U.S. strikes against al-Shabab targets — 13 different attacks since June — is part of a hurried effort to degrade the long-running insurgency and buy time for Somalia’s fledgling military.
The vexing questions now are the country’s fate after the withdrawal of the African Union Mission to Somalia, set to begin next year and conclude by 2020: How much territory could be lost to al-Shabab, and how fast?
“The group (Al-Shabab) would most likely retake some lost territory should AMISOM forces withdraw before the (Somalia National Army) is capable of effective independent operations against the group,” said Robyn Mack, a spokeswoman for U.S. Africa Command. “That being said, at this time it’s too early to determine what, if any, additional support will be required from the international community when AMISOM departs.”
Besides airstrikes, the stepped-up operations include U.S. commandos on the front lines with Somali forces. Regular U.S. troops give lessons in building defense institutions, with added support from other nations.
There is some doubt about the likely success of the airstrike campaign and the surge in land operations.
“No clear indication yet, but when pressured previously there has been a temporary degradation in both the group’s command and control and morale of the rank-and-file members,” Mack said. “However, this degradation has likely been temporary. The group has maintained the ability to resurge when pressure against them on the ground by allied/partner forces has lessened.”